These days, political reporters in Ottawa are spending most of their column inches and airtime on the three federal by-elections recently announced for September 8.
Liberal ridings in Westmount-Ville Marie, Quebec, and Guelph, Ontario, are being challenged by the New Democrats and the Conservatives; and a Bloc Québécois riding in St Lambert, Quebec, is also slated to vote.
That's not the big political story of this summer, however. After all, with a federal general election rumoured for the fall or winter, the new MPs from those three Quebec and Ontario ridings may only end up sitting a few days in their hard-earned seats before they're sent back out on the campaign trail, knocking on doors and kissing babies all over again.
No -- the big story, which has been quietly but steadily gaining steam, is the prospect of major changes in the left-wing opposition parties in Ontario and Alberta, provinces that together comprise more than half of the nation's gross domestic product. With the Ontario NDP's Howard Hampton and the Alberta Liberals' Kevin Taft both ousted after poor showings in the provinces' elections in the past year, the implications of the two leadership campaigns are far-reaching -- especially in terms of health policy.
ONTARIO NEW DEMOCRATS
In last October's election, the NDP actually gained several seats under the leadership of Howard Hampton, but that wasn't enough to lift them anywhere near the prominence the party enjoyed (and squandered) in the 90s under former Premier Bob Rae.
The leadership campaign will last an interminable eight months for some reason, and so far has attracted interest from nearly half of the party's 10-member caucus, .
Ontario's Liberal government has managed to avoid allowing healthcare to become a central political issue, thanks in part to Deputy Premier George Smitherman's deft (and occasionally daft, but not altogether unsuccessful) maneuvering in the health portfolio for the last five years.
Nevertheless, healthcare remains a potential cause célèbre simmering on the back burner.
After the election results came in last October, I spoke to Dr Michael Rachlis, a physician and health policy analyst in Toronto. He told me, "Next time I think that the election result could be very different, because if the government's plans from their first term don't go so smoothly in the second term, they'll be vulnerable." As I wrote in on the expected effects of the election results on the health sector, a number of major issues are still of concern to Ontarians: the government's reluctance to implement a comprehensive electronic health records initiative, the health tax (which the NDP proposed to do away with), and the risky decision to delegate many administrative and budgeting responsibilities to Local Health Integration Networks. Longtime health policy expert Michael Decter enumerated what he saw as the province's top five healthcare problems in December:
- chronic disease
- integrating health services
- making smart systems smarter
- "We want more doctors but we are getting family health teams"
- extending wait times reductions
The NDP's most obvious opportunity to challenge the Liberals and Tories on healthcare is the hospital funding question. The New Democrats are to the expansion of public-private partnerships, or P3s, which have emerged as a major element of the government's healthcare funding plan, especially in light of the June that saw Infrastructure Minister David Caplan ("the minister of P3s and privatization," according to Natalie Mehra of the Ontario Health Coalition) appointed to the Ministry of Health.
The next election, though it may be some time off still, promises to provide fertile ground for the NDP to take on the government on healthcare. Perhaps, if the right leader says the right things at the right times, the New Democrats may begin a return from the third-place doldrums they've been caught in for the last decade.
ALBERTA LIBERALS
The prognosis for the Alberta Liberals can only be described -- if we're being generous -- as a mixed bag. The Kevin Taft-led party tanked in the March election, losing nearly half its seats and leaving the Tories with 72 of the legislature's 83 total seats. But on the bright side, things can't get any worse, can they?
In all seriousness, though, the headline of my April article about the Tories' huge victory should give you a hint about the current state of affairs: "."
Given the ongoing healthcare problems in Alberta -- overcrowding in Calgary, administrative strife, two recent infection control scandals, and growing discontent on physicians' behalf -- it's particularly imperative that the opposition gets organized, and quickly.
Rumours have been bandied about since March of a , perhaps led by , a Calgary physician who's now the Alberta Liberals' environment critic (before he went into politics, he was fired as a public health officer for speaking out against the provincial government's refusal to endorse the Kyoto Accord). In March, the NDP sunk to a paltry two seats and the Greens failed to get a candidate elected to office; the thinking is that a rebranding and a reorientation might revitalize voters' interest in an alternative to Ed Stelmach's Progressive Conservative government.
Meanwhile, the Liberals have already begun the process of replacing Mr Taft. The party's deputy leader and health critic, Dave Taylor, has already . Dr Swann is thought to be interested in running; the same goes for Laurie Blakeman, who was health critic before Mr Taylor. MLA Hugh MacDonald may also join the race, . Edmonton-based ex-MLA Mo Elsalhy, a very young pharmacist, already he will compete with Mr Taylor.
There seems to be an unusual preponderance of health experience in the Alberta Liberal leadership race. That may simply be a coincidence, or it may be a sign that opposition politicians have finally recognized the opportunity to address the provincial government's checkered healthcare record.
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